Scaling laws show that loss decreases predictably with more parameters, data, and compute — following power-law relationships. The Chinchilla paper's key finding: most models were too large and undertrained. Given the same compute budget, training a smaller model on more data produces better results. This reshaped the entire industry's training strategy.
You don't need to become a researcher to understand AI models systematically. This series starts from what you can see (tokens, context windows) and works up to self-hosting open-source models — 18 articles covering everything you need to choose models, read benchmarks, and estimate costs.
2022 was the year diffusion models took center stage, Chinchilla scaling laws rewrote large-model training, and Chain-of-Thought turned reasoning into an ability that prompts could elicit. NeurIPS passed 10,000 submissions; three of its 13 Outstanding Papers directly concerned diffusion; and Chinchilla and data pruning both challenged the belief that bigger was always better. On the eve of ChatGPT’s release, every required piece fell into place at that year’s conferences.
2022 was a turning point at major AI conferences. Diffusion models moved from emerging to mainstream, with two NeurIPS Outstanding Papers; Chinchilla rewrote scaling laws; Chain-of-Thought showed that large models could reason; and InstructGPT used RLHF to teach language models to follow instructions. When ChatGPT launched at year-end, these academic topics instantly became global news.
Stanford Marin pre-registers a paloma macro-loss of 2.04 with a 5-rung Scaling Ladder at 1% cost, then trains 535B-A23B on 11×GB200 in public with live W&B telemetry — 847 training buckets already show the most teachable frontier run.
Lecture 9 begins with log-log linear relationships between data and error, then uses scaling laws to compare architectures, optimizers, batches, and model-data allocations. The Chinchilla dispute shows how fitting methods, observed ranges, and deployment objectives change the answer.
Lecture 11 reads public recipes from MiniCPM, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Llama 3: hold most architectural ratios fixed, sweep learning rate and batch at small scale, then choose model/data allocation with IsoFLOPs. μP helps, but normalization, optimizers, and weight decay can break transfer.
Ask a model what a goose looks like to it and it draws a whole flock — because the labeled data tagged a flock as 'goose,' so it thinks the flock is the label. This lecture gives seven ways to open a CNN up, then says honestly: applied to transformers, even the frontier of this research only explains two layers.