How to Read Typhoon Forecast Maps: Track, Intensity, and Ensemble Proportions in AI vs. European Models
In 2025 evaluations, AI models such as AIFS had smaller typhoon track errors than traditional models such as ECMWF's IFS, while intensity and wind-and-rain forecasts remain weak. When reading a forecast map, first separate a single track from an ensemble proportion, and track from intensity. Treat disagreement more than three days out as undecided.