How to Rigorously Compare Before and After Agent Changes: From Golden Sets to Statistical Testing
Even with temperature=0, LLM outputs can still fluctuate by up to 15% in practice. To rigorously compare agent changes, you need a frozen golden set, at least 3 runs per query averaged out, LLM-as-judge blind evaluation (pairwise preference flip rate reaches 35%), and paired statistical tests -- not just running each version once and going by feel.