Value Validation for Digital Products: From Assumption Maps to the M3 Retention Baseline for AI
The unit of validation is an assumption, not an idea. Kohavi's data shows the industry median experiment success rate is ~10%, which means roughly 22% of 'winning' experiments at p<0.05 are false positives. Sean Ellis's 40% threshold has no publicly available dataset. AI product retention should be baselined at M3 rather than M0, and GRR splits from 23% below $50/mo to 70% above $250/mo.