CS2881R L6: Will AI Doing AI R&D Trigger an Intelligence Explosion?
Lecture 6 of Harvard CS 2881R (Fall 2025) had no guest. Boaz Barak used the differential equations of growth theory to ask one question: if AI starts doing its own AI research, does the capability curve stay exponential, blow up into a singularity, or get dragged down by bottlenecks? The answer hinges on a few exponents nobody can measure well. He used Baumol's cost disease, the century-long 2% puzzle in US GDP per capita, and Jones's idea-based growth model to show why both bottlenecks and acceleration are plausible, then took apart the multipliers behind AI 2027. His conclusion: the only scenario he can rule out is 'AI has little effect on R&D.'